The backtest results of the Homma "Khela Hobe" is here

Finally you know if it is at all profitable!

Dec 16, 2023

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"You cannot improve what you cannot measure"

I developed the Homma Khela Hobe (HKH) indicator.

And I think it’s good.

But,

It’s natural for me to think that.

So I asked myself. Is there proof?

Show me the proof.

Show me.

In this article, I show you.

(Look at me now. ~Leon Rocky Edwards.)

P.S: Huge thanks to Anish (PB) for backtesting the data for me.

How did we backtest it?

So we took the end of the day close price of all the HKH hits in 3 different Market regimes (Sideways, Bearish and Bullish).

And asked the following question:

If we buy all the KHK names at close price with a Stoploss of X% and sell at a profit of nX% (n = 2,3,4…).

What does the trade statistics look like at the end of 20 days?

Here are the following trade characteristics we look for:

Risk% (SL).
Reward% (profit).
Number of winners.
Number of losers.
Number of sideways (Neither SL hit, nor Profit taken) trades.
Total trades.
Average holding period of winners (in days).
Average holding period of losers (in days).
Risk: Reward ratio
Win rate (%)

So is it profitable?

Downtrend and sideways market is not profitable (as it should be).

But on a Bullish market:

Highly profitable.

With a win rate of ~44% and an average holding period of ~11 days.

Remember the win rate can be better as some trades are still open (sideways) which we are considering as losers right now.

The actual results will be even better given the trades are taken immediately after the HKH signal appears.

(HPA just began a live alert Telegram group this week where members receive the Homma Khela Hobe signals as soon as they get triggered).

And the results will be even more better in reality, as one can derisk (don’t know derisk? Article coming soon) at 2R rather than sell all and trail the rest for a longer move.

How much does this translate to per year?

For a hypothetical account size of 1,00,000.

10 trades of 10K each.

each with 4% risk = 400 rs and a 2R reward of 800.

with 44% win rate and 56% loss rate.

The expectancy comes to = (800*0.44)-(400*0.56) = 128

Means you can possibly gain 128 rupee with each trade.

How many such trades can you take at once?

10.

How many such trades can you take max in a year?

Total days in a year/ Today days taken for each trade on average = 250/11 = ~23

23*10 = 230 trades in year.

Total profit = No. of trades * expectancy = 230*128 = 29,440

~30%

This in bare minimum.

Remeber your trade size here remains the same, but in reality your size increases as the profits increase.

Plus you trail 50%.

Plus

This can be improved by manually getting into high RS names and better set ups.

I discuss more about the results and how to improve the entries in this video.

Please like and comment if you liked the video. Please

Thank you for reading The Technical Take. Please share it if you find this valuable. Thanks

Summary:

IT IS HIGHLY PROFITABLE.

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If you are a free reader of TTT, do consider upgrading to being a paid reader.

If Stipe is a problemo.

Upgrade via UPI payment: (I promise, there will be a payment gateway soon)

It’s priced at 599/- a year (for now)

Yes, a year. Not month.

Send me a screenshot for confirmation on WhatsApp with your email ID.

Pay to:

Number 9481506784

or, UPI ID: 9481506784@idfcfirst

That's all for today.

With the endless support of my private HPA community I am continuously improving the Homma Khela Hobe each day.

There will be HKH 2.0s and 3.0s soon. No doubt. And it will be even more profitable.

Its a process.

And HPA as a community is committed to getting high performance consistently.

Take this opportunity to be a part of the community today.

Details below:

Also,

Almost forgot to mention that I am providing FREE access to the Homma khela hobe indicator on trading view till the end of the year.

Just share this article & comment below your Tradingview username.

HPA guys will have FREE year long access (ofcourse, duh!)

Homma Private Access membership:

HPA is a subscription-based educational service (on WhatsApp). Benefits include:
1. Daily Market Breadth, Momentum, Sector Rotation, and Relative Strength Update.
2. Access to all my scanners including the BBB (buy before breakouts) scanner.
3. Access to my breadth-Momentum-Relative Strength & Sector Rotation dashboards.
4. Access to my Trading view indicators.
5. HPA Weekly: Hourly weekend deep dives and Q&A.
6. 1-year access to The Technical Take premium.
7. Live updates on my portfolio and the trading setup rationale.
8. Access to my high probability watchlist.

Yearly membership of 12000/- INR only.

UPI payment & WhatsApp @ 9481506784.

Yours

Sakatas “ Bhishon Khela Hobe” Homma

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