MATH: Momentum Anticipation and Trend by Homma:
MATH last week: Click the link
As technical traders, we
“Anticipate, but confirm. Wish, but only react.”
"Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." ~ Wayne Gretzky
By anticipate, I do not mean “make positions earlier”. What I mean is, assign probabilities to all possible scenarios of what could happen next. Stack those probabilities when those scenarios unfold. And change (increase/decrease) your risk exposure according to changing (increasing/decreasing) Market breadth.
And be mentally prepared with the(your) response. It is a mental exercise. It helps you act faster when the confirmation eventually comes in.
Lastly, be okay with any result/possibility that comes next.
Trend: Bearish & trending down.
Short-term: “Percentage of stocks above 10/20-DMA”
Medium-term: “Percentage of stocks above 50-DMA”
Long-term: “Percentage of stocks above 200-DMA”
In the short term, bearish and trending down.
In the medium term, bearish and trending down.
In the long-term, bearish and trending down.
Momentum:
Homma Mswing Score: (basal Momentum)
Bearish and in a downswing.
Landry Daily: (Hard Momentum. Momentum Bias for Swing Play)
(Landry Momentum plot is lagging in nature).
In a downswing.
Landry Weekly (Momentum Bias for Positional Play):
(Landry Momentum plot is lagging in nature).
Trending down
Net4% Movers: Bearish
Below the 0 line.
N50:
Nifty saw immense selling pressure in last 3 weeks and is down 12% from the swing highs.
It is extremely oversold.
We might possibly find a bottom around here.
But be open to possibility of further downside.
Anticipation:
Bias is bearish.
Easy money only on a confirmed breakout of the big base.
Positional bias = No money
PS: Anticipations are often wrong, and biases should be adjusted after every candle.
If you dont know this already, I update my Market MATH every day on my website under the BREADTH section. Please check in every day post-market.
A quirky Bull Market indicator:
One that tells you for sure when a bull market is in.
One that eases your anxiety and assures you that the market will NOT take off without you.
One that keeps you from jumping in too big, too soon.
One that keeps your expectations in check, IF you are still trading.
(link to the indicator at the bottom)
Observation: bearish
So is the Bull market in yet?
Group Strength:
Sectoral:
Leading groups: Power/Energy-related
Most Bullish this Week = Power
Strength continuation =
Bottom Strength =
Sectors/Groups I like as LRE = Power
Index:
Leaders = PSU Banks, Metals and commodities, Defence
Most bullish this week =
Indices I like as LREs = Power/Energy
Watchlists:
Follow the Strongest Stocks (the RS 100 and RS 100 Liquid watchlists below):
Find Tightness candidates from Tandem Inside bars and Triple Tight Star scan.
Earnings/Tradable Gaps are caught by the scanner TGP (tradable Gap Pivots).
Homma scanners: https://www.sakatashomma.com/scanners
Find the lowest risk entries from the leading strongest groups in my actionable watchlist for the week below:
