Market MATH & Watchlist: 2-May-2025
Hard Money| Bias: We bounce from the 20/50 MAs
MATH: Momentum Anticipation and Trend by Homma:
MATH last week: Click the link
The most comprehensive article on Breadth and Anticipation:
As technical traders, we
“Anticipate, but confirm. Wish, but only react.”
Trend:
Short-term: “Percentage of stocks above 10/20-DMA”
Medium-term: “Percentage of stocks above 50-DMA”
Long-term: “Percentage of stocks above 200-DMA”
In the short term, we are nearing and stabilizing near the oversold zone.
In the medium term, we are in the bullish zone but pulling back.
In the long term, we are pulling back to the oversold zone.
Momentum:
Homma Mswing Score: (basal Momentum)
Momentum is still persistent (compare with the Jan-March period).
We are pulling back and sideways.
Mswing score still bullish (above 50%)
.
Landry Daily: (Momentum Bias for Swing Play)
Strong momentum (Momentum for swing trading) is flat and putting a mild pullback.
Landry Weekly (Momentum Bias for Positional Play):
Weekly momentum continues to languish at the bottom. Still making Lower Highs.
Therefore, shows that there is no reason to FOMO yet.
Net4% Movers:
Flattening/basing with lower highs.
Need to push to positive territory for the Bounce.
N50:
The Nifty 50 is one of the strongest indices right now.
And, Largecaps » Midcaps » Smallcaps » Microcaps
If you look at all indices, N50 has bounced off the 10DMA and is still above it, while others are below the 10DMA and some even below the 20DMA.
This is not surprising as this is the norm during bear market rallies.
Nifty is now approaching a major pivot high.
Any sideways action between that level and the breakout level would be good for the markets.
Anticipation:
So, after rejecting the pivot high, we are basing (day 5), and the key MAs are catching up.
How could things unfold next?
First, we are still trending down on the higher timeframe.
Now that we are on day 5 of the downswing, and the short-term breadth has cooled down, the risk-reward is better in case the bounce materializes.
As the key MAs have caught up, the bias would be to find support from one of them.
We wait for the bounce signal to come (discussed in the YouTube video linked below).
Lastly, does having a “bias for a bounce” mean the bounce is certain?
NO. Always be open to the possibility of the opposite of what you anticipate. You will be fine as long as you wait for the confirmation of the bias before acting.
Positional bias is still NO money this week.
PS: Anticipations are often wrong, and biases should be adjusted after every candle.
If you dont know this already, I update my Market MATH every day on my website under the BREADTH section. Please check in every day post-market.
Group Strength:
Sectoral:
Banks and Financials are pulling back, but still strong.
Defence is strong and defiant.
QSR's new strength from the lows.
Index:
O&G surges due to strong action by Reliance.
Financials and Banks are still strong.
Pharma and Healthcare indices are developing good bases.
Watchlists:
Follow the Strongest Stocks (the RS 100 and RS 100 Liquid watchlists below):
Find Tightness candidates from Tandem Inside bars and Tandem Low ranges.
https://www.sakatashomma.com/scanners
Find my curated Tight watchlist for the week below.
Watchlist(s) below
Situational Awareness and Actionable setup weekly video:
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