Market MATH & Watchlist: 11-April-2025
No Money| Bias: Neutral to Downswing continuation
MATH: Momentum Anticipation and Trend by Homma:
MATH last week: Click the link
The most comprehensive article on Breadth and Anticipation:
As technical traders, we
“Anticipate, but confirm. Wish, but only react.”
Trend:
Short-term: “Percentage of stocks above 10/20-DMA”
Medium-term: “Percentage of stocks above 50-DMA”
Long-term: “Percentage of stocks above 200-DMA”
In the short and medium term, it is bearish.
Still oversold in the long term (and Bearish, of course).
Momentum:
The momentum has been increasing after Black Monday.
Landry Daily: (Momentum Bias for Swing Play)
Sideways to dead.
Landry Weekly (Momentum Bias for Positional Play):
Weekly momentum continues to languish at the bottom.
Net4% Movers:
A glance at the Net4% movers will tell you about the wild volatility swings we have had this week.
N50:
After a bearish reversal from the major pivot high.
The Black Monday assault plunged the Nifty to the previous lows.
It has crept back up to close the Gap.
Currently meeting the declining key MAs.
Any change in fortunes in the longer term will only come above the clear resistance of the 23800s.
Anticipation:
So, we have climbed up to the key short-term MAs. How could things unfold next?
The global markets remain volatile, and the politics around tariffs are far from certain.
A mere fart from Trump could send shockwaves of panic and everything could go down crumbling (again).
In any case,
The breadth remains bearish and volatile.
The key MAs are still declining and above price.
As such, my bias is NOT positive.
Although a breakout above the key moving averages cannot be ruled out,
We are most likely to continue the downside or painfully go sideways.
I will be looking for a constructive pullback and tightness around the gap.
Positional bias is back to NO money this week.
PS: Anticipations are often wrong, and bias should be adjusted after every candle.
If you dont know this already, I update my Market MATH every day on my website under the BREADTH section. Please check in every day post-market.
Group Strength:
Sectoral:
Banks and Financials lead.
EMS did well this week.
Pockets of strength in Agrochemicals too.
Index:
Indices paint the same picture.
Financials.
FMCG and Consumer durables gain in strength this week.
Watchlists:
Follow the Strongest Stock (the RS 100 names):
Intraday tradable names would be found on the Strong Start candidates every day:
https://www.sakatashomma.com/scanners
Watchlist(s) below
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