MATH: Momentum Anticipation and Trend by Homma:
MATH last week: Click the link
As technical traders, we
“Anticipate, but confirm. Wish, but only react.”
"Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." ~ Wayne Gretzky
By anticipate, I do not mean “make positions earlier”. What I mean is, assign probabilities to all possible scenarios of what could happen next. Stack those probabilities when those scenarios unfold. And change (increase/decrease) your risk exposure according to changing (increasing/decreasing) Market breadth.
And be mentally prepared with the (your) response. It is a mental exercise. It helps you act faster when the confirmation eventually comes in.
Lastly, be okay with any result/possibility that comes next.
Short-term: “Percentage of stocks above 10/20-DMA”
Medium-term: “Percentage of stocks above 50-DMA”
Long-term: “Percentage of stocks above 200-DMA”
In the short term, bullish.
In the medium term, bullish.
In the medium term, bearish but improving.
Momentum: Bullish
Homma Mswing Score: (basal Momentum)
Bullish.
Landry Daily: (Hard Momentum. Momentum Bias for Swing Play)
(Landry Momentum plot is lagging in nature).
Bullish.
Landry Weekly (Momentum Bias for Positional Play):
(Landry Momentum plot is lagging in nature).
Bullish reversal
Net4% Movers:
Sideways to mildly bullish.
N50:
The structure in higher timeframe is still bearish.
Forming a base with VCP and above all key MAs.
My bias is for Nifty to find a higher low and breakout.
.
Anticipation:
Midsmall400
Is on a good uptrend, above all key MAs.
Trending well above the key MA 21 ema.
Has outperformed Nifty50 and is around the Big base pivot, ~2 % from the All Time Highs.
As such, being around the ATH and a 20% one way rally, the bias is of a pullback or sideways base formation. Before breaking out to new ATHs.
Positional bias = Hard money
Nifty50 underperformance as compared to the small and madcaps
PS: Anticipations are often wrong, and biases should be adjusted after every candle.
If you dont know this already, I update my Market MATH every day on my website under the BREADTH section. Please check in every day post-market.
A quirky Bull Market indicator:
One that tells you for sure when a bull market is in.
One that eases your anxiety and assures you that the market will NOT take off without you.
One that keeps you from jumping in too big, too soon.
One that keeps your expectations in check, IF you are still trading.
(link to the indicator at the bottom)
Observation: Signs of bullishness coming. Number of stocks doubling hits 50. If it stays above this for 3 weeks, more signs of a bull market.
Group Strength:
A weekly Mswing >50% and rising is bullish; <50% and falling is bearish.
Sectoral:
Leading groups: Defence, Power/Energy-related, Capital Goods, Banks
Most Bullish this Week = Telecom, cables, chemicals
Strength continuation =
Bottom Strength =
Sectors/Groups I like as LRE = Power/Energy-related, optical fibers, cables.
Index:
Mswing above 1% (and rising) is a positive momentum.
Leaders = Metals, Energy, Defence
Most bullish this week = Auto, Defence
Indices I like as LREs = Defence, Capital good, Power, Capital Markets
.
When market regime is Hard-Easy Money, find the lowest risk entries from the leading strongest groups in my actionable watchlist for the week below.
Leaders will be in the High Momentum List- Mswing.
Current Market Regime: Easy-Hard MONEY
Watchlists:
Follow the Leading Stocks (the Mswing RS100 and RS100-Liquid watchlists below):
Potential leaders list
with 15% of 52-week High list
